Afghanistan: Consultant of “Remote Hazard Assesment for modelling of floods, flash-flood, debris flow and landslides”

Background:

Focus Humanitarian Assistance (FOCUS) is an international group of agencies established in Europe, North America, South and Central Asia to complement the provision of emergency relief, principally in the developing world. It helps people in need reduce their dependence on humanitarian aid and facilitates their transition to sustainable self‐reliant, long‐term development. FOCUS is an affiliate of the Aga Khan Development Network.

Afghanistan is prone to multiple disasters. Baghlan is a north-eastern province of Afghanistan and it has been affected several times by natural disasters. It has 14 districts and most of the districts are prone to natural hazards. Baghlan province is also prone to prone to regular flooding, flash flood, debris flow and landslide. It is also susceptible to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods. In 2010 a villages of Kuhband and Nekpai were severely impacted by the mud flow created as a result of an outburst of a glacial lake located far upstream. More than 40 houses were washed out and the population lost its property. Current trends for occurrence of hazards in Baghlan is due to the remote hazards in different part of the provinces. Therefore, it is important to understand and assess the remote hazards for better risk calculation and framing the intervention for risk reduction.

Job Objective:

The study is aimed to create a hazard inventory for flood, flash flood, landslides and debris flow as they are the most common occurrence in Baghlan. It will help in ensuring that hazards data is comprehensive, from the wider provincial scale to localized area assessment.

• Reduce disaster risk through improved mapping and risk identification in Baghlan.


• Enable communities and government authorities to anticipate, prepare for, respond to and recover from shocks that are caused by natural disasters due to presence of remote hazards.


• Identify prone locations to enhance structural and non-structural preparedness measures to ensure better preparedness and response to natural disasters.


• To enhance effectiveness of response and preparedness based on the comprehensive risk identification.

Duties and Responsibilities:

The key responsibilities of the subject specialist are described as follows:

• Mapping of Process area and phenomena (Flood, Flash-Flood, debris flow and landslides)


• Landslide activity characterization.


• Hazard mapping for flood, flash flood, debris flow and determining the energy line for landslide.


• Development of risk calculation model. All the communities in Baghlan would be then prioritized based on the risk calculation analysis.


• Hazard scenarios and risk hot spot analysis (GIS for flood, Flash Flood, Debris Flow and landslides.


• Report development/dissemination.


• Provide orientation to the technical team of FOCUS for such assessment and its utility.

Project duration:
The given assignment will be accomplished within 8 months but initial assessment of the prone locations may be provided to FOCUS team bit early for planning and development of risk reduction measures.

Scope and study modalities:
FOCUS current data sets of satellite imagery is planned to be used for first step of study. The consultant should also seek to use and apply where necessary all the possible free source data sets available online. It is also advised to obtain high resolution Digital Terrain model for the landslide component, possibly from OFDA’s partner IMMAP.
Study also plan to model flood, flash flood, debris flow and landslides using predominantly remote sensing data and in situ data for model calibration. Study will also use freely-available satellite rain fall data (IRMM, CHORPH), Soil Moisture (CCI from the European Space agency and SMAP from NASA), Land cover (GLCF) and SRTM-larc Digital Elevation Model (DEM) (30 meter spatial resolution), However for flash flood/Debris flows and landslides a DEM with spatial resolution of 5-10 m will be used.
Analysis will have remote sensing and in situ components. Satellite remote sensing will allow to view the terrain in the area from angles which have not previously been accessible and to identify hazards which cannot be discovered easily from a situ assessment.
All assessment reports and maps will be share with communities, government officials, UN and other international partners. It will facilitate the better planning for risk reduction measures. Following set of data is required to be used for assessment and analysis.

• Flood: High resolution DEM (Resolution of 5-10 m), Based on the potential availability of in sit data from the river discharge and rainfall gauge (weather stations) more detailed analysis would be made using physical based models.


• Flash Flood/Debris Flow: Flash Flood and debris flow requires a high resolution DEM (5-10 M). Initial stage of study should identify catchments, which has elevated flash flood and debris flow activities based on satellite imagery, land cover and topographic analysis (Slope angle, curvature and catchment geometry). This should determine a flash flood hazards index. Run-out probability for debris flow will be determined with empirical relationship and approaches incorporating the travel against and mutli-flow methods.


• Landslides: Based on a high resolution DEM (5-10 M), the potential run-out of landslide will be elevated using the concept of the energy line and empirical relationship with travel distance with landslide volume.


• GLOF (Glacial Lake Outburst Flood): In Baghlan, there few high mountain areas where glacial lakes were observed in the past. In order to make sure that there is no threat, those areas should be also viewed from the GLOF hazard perspective.

Deliverables:
The following deliverables shall be produced within the 8 month assignment time-frame:

• Mapping of process and phenomena (Flood, Flash-Flood, Debris Flow and landslides)


• Landslide activity characterization


• Hazard modelling for Flood, Flash Flood, Debris flow, GLOF and landslides.


• Development of hazard risk calculation model and prioritization of communities.


• Hazards scenarios and risk hot spot analysis (GIS) for flood, Flash flood, debris flow, GLOF and landslides.


• Draft report development. The report should be developed in an easy and comprehensible way, with description of the methods applied and explanation of the results. The report will be used by the organization decision makers and other stakeholders, who are not necessary scientists, therefore guiding explanation would be required.


• Contribute to the formulation of a general list of preparedness and mitigation strategies for identified hazards phenomena and hot spots


• Recommendation for future investigations of selected areas in context of identified hazards and its phenomena.


• Hard and soft data produced and purchased as primary data


• On the job training of GIS and geologist during field work


• Orientations to technical and management staff about findings of the assignments, its process, methodology, deliverables and its use.

Note: All maps and GIS information will be produced as per organizational templates and data sets. The data base and GIS based map templates will be provided to consultants.

Qualifications and Experiences:
Following are the qualifications and experiences as desired for this assignment

• Educational qualification with PhD degree in any of the following fields


• Natural sciences i.e. Physical Geography, Applied Geology with specialization in natural hazard risk assessment, prevention and mitigation, Disaster Management with GIS and remote sensing back ground.


• At least more than seven years of experience in multi-hazard assessment by using GIS and remote sensing tool, techniques and relevant equipment.


• Consultant/subject specialist/firms who are equipped with existing platforms of GIS and remote sensing systems will be preferred


• Experience having multi-hazard inventories, characterize and prioritization of hot spot using satellite images and remote sensing techniques in mountainous regions across the world but experience in south Asia region and central Asia region will be an asset


• Experience in developing regional and local hazard and risk maps and atlases.


• Experience in developing early warning systems based on hazard and risk map for communities in identified hot-spots.


• Experience in linking technical output with community based disaster risk management is desired.


• Scientist who have good connections with satellite data and information sources.


• Overall understanding of Disaster Risk Management and risk assessment for preparedness